A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
